Market Overview
The South Africa oil and gas market size reached USD 91.05 Million in 2024 and is forecasted to grow to USD 324.83 Million by 2033. The market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 15.18% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2033. Growth is driven by industrial expansion, increasing transportation demand, and significant infrastructure investments, alongside regulatory reforms that promote exploration activities. Declining refining capacity has increased reliance on imports, encouraging modernization efforts in infrastructure. These factors collectively shape the South Africa oil and gas market landscape. For more details, visit the South Africa Oil and Gas Market.
How AI is Reshaping the Future of South Africa Oil and Gas Market
- AI technologies are enhancing offshore and onshore exploration activities by enabling advanced data analysis and seismic imaging, supporting companies like TotalEnergies in preparing up to seven exploration wells offshore South Africa with precision and efficiency.
- Automation and AI-driven monitoring systems facilitate refinery modernization efforts, such as those at Astron Energy’s Milnerton refinery, which has a capacity of 100,000 barrels per day, improving operational efficiency and compliance with environmental standards.
- AI-powered predictive maintenance reduces downtime and operational risk in oil and gas facilities, supporting cleaner fuel production aligned with South Africa’s Clean Fuels II regulations.
- Government regulatory reforms, like the Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Act, benefit from AI for streamlining licensing and investment processing, enhancing transparency and speed.
- Advanced AI algorithms enable better supply chain optimization and procurement strategies, crucial for addressing South Africa’s increased import reliance due to declining refining capacity.
- AI-driven competitive intelligence and market analysis help stakeholders navigate the evolving South African oil and gas landscape, maximizing opportunities amid infrastructure upgrades and exploration momentum.
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Market Growth Factors
The South Africa oil and gas market is primarily driven by an expansion of offshore and onshore exploration activities. Significant momentum has been observed especially along the Orange Basin and Mpumalanga regions, with companies like TotalEnergies preparing to drill multiple exploration wells. This surge is supported by regulatory reforms such as the Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Act, which attracts investment and streamlines licensing to boost domestic hydrocarbon production capacity. These exploration efforts are strategically positioning South Africa to increase its energy self-sufficiency and market size.
Another crucial growth factor is refinery modernization and compliance with cleaner fuel regulations. With domestic refining assets decreasing, investments are being channeled into upgrading existing facilities to meet environmental standards, like the Clean Fuels II regulation. Astron Energy’s investment of R6 billion (approx. USD 328 million) to transition to Euro 5 fuel standards by 2027 exemplifies this trend, supporting the production of cleaner fuels and stabilizing supply amidst rising import dependency. These infrastructure improvements enhance resilience and environmental compliance simultaneously.
Industrial expansion, augmented transportation demand, and infrastructure investments also underpin market growth. Declining refining capacity in South Africa leads to greater import reliance, which drives modernization and expansion of infrastructure to meet demand. These dynamics, alongside regulatory efforts encouraging exploration and cleaner fuel production, form a synergistic framework fostering sustained market growth and shaping the industry’s future in South Africa.
Our comprehensive South Africa oil and gas market outlook reflects both short-term tactical and long-term strategic planning. This analysis is essential for stakeholders aiming to navigate the complexities of the market and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Market Segmentation
Type Insights:
- Upstream
- Midstream
- Downstream
Application Insights:
- Offshore
- Onshore
Regional Insights:
- Gauteng
- KwaZulu-Natal
- Western Cape
- Mpumalanga
- Eastern Cape
- Others
Recent Development & News
- July 2025: Shell received environmental approval to drill up to five deep-water wells in the Northern Cape Ultra Deep Block off South Africa’s west coast at depths of 2,500–3,200 meters, marking renewed offshore exploration momentum and efforts to enhance domestic energy security.
- March 2025: Astron Energy, a Glencore unit, announced a R6 billion (approx. USD 328 million) investment to upgrade its Milnerton refinery near Cape Town to comply with Clean Fuels II and Euro 5 fuel standards by mid-2027, ensuring cleaner fuel production and supply resilience despite declining refining capacity.
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